In This Issue

 

Nanotechnology as a Key Technology Tool for Addressing the Unholy Trinity

 

Looking to 2019: Economics & Values in the Reform of the U.S. Health System

 

IAF Speaks to the Future at WorldFuture 2008

 

Forward Perspectives

Nanotechnology as a Key Technology Tool for Addressing the Unholy Trinity
   By IAF President Jonathan Peck

Nanotechnology will be a critical component for technological solutions to a potential "unholy trinity" scenario. The "unholy trinity" is a worst case scenario where three global problems occur at the same time to create widespread disruption to environmental, political and economic systems. IAF first described the "unholy trinity" scenario in our March 2008 Newsletter.  

The earth's population will quickly grow to seven, eight and eventually nine billion people this century. Developing a 21st century infrastructure that harnesses the power of nanotechnology will be vital to address the three interlinked challenges of the "unholy trinity":

• The challenge of peak oil will force us to alter the way we use energy for power generation, transmission and transportation. The choice will be regression to a simpler, older way of life that uses less energy or accelerated research into ways to conserve energy and improve the efficiency of alternatives to oil and coal.
  
• The second unholy problem comes when our use of oil and coal accelerates the climate change that has already started. Global warming will spark widespread environmental problems including water shortages in the American West, flooding due to melting ice caps in India, severe drought cycles in Africa and widespread disruption in Europe due to international migration.
• The third problem in "the unholy trinity" is a global economic downturn that pulls people everywhere into a cycle of stagnation and inflation that lands us somewhere between recession and depression. The cost of energy surging makes food and travel ever more expensive, and more businesses see costs rise and sales fall which leads them to cut their workforce.

Nanotechnology will help address the challenges of peak oil by improving energy efficiency and forming vital components of sustainable energy technology. Nano-structure materials will be vital to improving the efficiency of lighting, heating, electricity conduction and electricity storage. Lighter and more durable materials based on nanotechnology will improve the efficiency of many common devices. For example, lighter, stronger nanomaterials can be used to reduce the weight, and ultimately improve the fuel efficiency of cars, planes, trains and other vehicles. Nanotechnology is also a vital component for more efficient batteries & wiring, the polymer membranes of fuel cells and hydrogen storage devices. These are key technologies for storing, using and transmitting the intermittent power produced by sustainable energy. Nanotechnology is also being used in the development of less expensive, more efficient thin film solar cells and nanotechnology coatings to improve the efficiency of silicon solar cells. Stronger, lighter, and more conductive materials based on nanotechnology will also improve other sustainable energy sources such as wind turbines, tidal power stations, geothermal power plants, and biomass gasification.

 

Nanotechnology offers a number of solutions to the water problems caused by population growth and global warming. Many of the regions that will experience the most growth, such as the Middle East, Africa and India, are already under acute water stress. Twenty-nine countries were estimated to be experiencing water stress in 1995, and the World Bank projects that by 2025, about forty-eight countries will experience water stress. Global warming will exacerbate water shortages by making weather cycles more extreme leading to more volatile drought cycles. Nanotechnology offers potential solutions through inexpensive water purification and desalinization using microfiltration systems. Nanotechnology could also be a part of water conservation strategies needed to support new forms of farming that could avert massive famines.  

 

Paradoxically, nanotechnology's role in addressing the first two challenges of the "unholy trinity" could be the basis for addressing the third challenge of a global economic downturn. Economic expansions tend to be linked to the explosion of new technologies that fill vital needs and transform economic systems. Nanotechnology has the potential to foster high growth across many other sectors of the economy. Like the IT revolution in decades past, a nanotech revolution changes so many basic industries that it opens prospects for another economic boom.  

The impetus for thinking about nanotechnology as a solution to the "unholy trinity" occurred after a recent workshop I facilitated for the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI). The NNI is the U.S. research program for nanotechnology. Unlike most government programs, the NNI crosses 25 different federal agencies to leverage nanotechnology's unique benefits across vast swathes of our society. The workshop facilitation experience was unique as it brought together leaders from across the federal government united in a shared vision for nanotechnology's future.  

 

It is this shared vision that made me think of nanotechnology as a way to address another fundamental problem. In IAF's work with the government, we've noticed departments and agencies succumb to "hollow government syndrome". The phrase "hollow government syndrome" refers to the phenomenon of government agencies facing problems that grow in scope and scale while the capacity of the government stagnates or diminishes. The fundamental organization of government in departments and agencies (funded and overseen by congressional committees) creates segmented responses to large problems needing integrated solutions. The NNI's integrated approach to fostering nanotechnology may be an example of how to make government work outside the "stovepipes" and "silos" that fail to support collaboration for innovation.  

 

It is early days for this initiative, and it is clearly counter-cultural for those people who are used to bureaucratic turf wars, but it offers hope. Maybe the NNI will show how government can rise to the challenge of solving our most vexing problems by demonstrating how to take advantage of the most promising technological revolution since the computer.

 

Trends & Insights

Looking to 2019: Economics & Values in the Reform of the U.S. Health System

Early in the month of July, the United States Senate was deep in negotiations over planned cuts to doctor payments under Medicare. The impasse finally broke on Wednesday when Senator Ted Kennedy returned to the Capitol from treatment for brain cancer to thunderous applause to break a Republican filibuster. The passions evoked on both sides of the aisle during the impasse showed both the importance of fixing out healthcare system and the challenge of finding common ground.

Healthcare has been a key part of the campaigns of both Barrack Obama and John McCain. Obama campaigned during the Democratic primary on a universal, portable healthcare coverage through a national plan that requires companies to pay for coverage or contribute to a public fund. The system would look much more like Medicare than our current system.

McCain, on the other hand, also wants universal coverage, but would get there by reforming the healthcare marketplace, taxing employee sponsored benefits and using the proceeds to fund tax credits for individuals and families to buy insurance coverage. Rather than making the national system more like Medicare and Medicaid, McCain would make those systems more like the current national system by successfully reforming the "spending pressures in Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid." The Republican approach would rely more on privatization and competition in the marketplace to reduce costs, improve care and achieve universal coverage.

The American system is notoriously inefficient. Americans pay more per capita for healthcare than any other nation on Earth, yet by every objective measure available, this spending has not correlated with better health outcomes. For example, the U.S. spent forty‐four percent more per capita than Switzerland, the nation with the next highest per person healthcare costs. Yet, for this price Americans received, on average, fewer physician visits and fewer days in hospital than their Swiss counterparts.

Both candidates agree that change is urgently needed. However, the differences in values between the two parties combined with vested interests have stymied all previous attempts at reform. Part of the problem is that we, as a nation, have not consciously identified our healthcare values. Without publically addressing what we value as a nation in our healthcare, the political arena remains open to political struggle over trade-offs that benefits those with vested interests in preventing change.     

 

Yet the ushering in of a new administration in 2009 brings with it a renewed hope for change in U.S. healthcare. It is IAF's hope that by 2019, the United States will have a better health system with universal coverage that both candidates support. But getting there will require discussion and consensus not only on the dysfunctional economics of our current system, but also on the values that should drive healthcare in the U.S. With that in mind, IAF has prepared briefs on values and economics for our project 2019: Healthcare that Works for All.

News and Events

 

IAF Speaks to the Future at WorldFuture 2008

 

The World Future Society's annual convention is fast approaching. On July 26th -28th, WorldFuture 2008 Seeing the World Through New Eyes will be held in Washington D.C. IAF will holding its regular Wiser Futures Workshop as well as a number of panel discussions.

IAF Futurists Marsha Rhea and Craig Bettles will join Elizabeth Carlson from the National Association of Elementary School Principals (NAESP) to explore the future of education. The panel, 2021 Vision for Elementary and Middle Schools in a Global Society, will be held on July 28th, 2008. This panel will draw on the learning formed during NAESP's groundbreaking futures project Vision 2021. Those attending the panel will not just learn about the forecasts and scenarios for the future of education developed by IAF, but will also have opportunities for interaction with their colleagues and to learn from Elizabeth Carlson how a compelling future vision for the profession of education is transforming NAESP.  

IAF Futurists Clem Bezold and Bill Rowley will discuss the exciting opportunities for the future of health care at the Health For All and a Health Care System Worth Creating panel on July 27th, 2008. The session will provide real insight into the future of the profession by drawing on the extensive experience of Bezold and Rowley as well as the healthcare futures projects underway at IAF such as the 2019: Healthcare that Works for All project. Bezold and Rowley will also demonstrate the IAF model for a health care system worth creating in this session.  

IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson and David Pearce Snyder of The Snyder Family Enterprise will tackle the future of air travel in The Coming Decade in Air Travel, 2020 Visions from Two Blind Seers on July 27th, 2008. Herson and Snyder will discuss air travel from the perspectives of a technology forecaster and a trend extrapolator. Through a dialogue with the audience, the two futurists will show how two dramatically different future visions of air travel to create a complete picture of air travel in 2020.

IAF looks forward to meeting you at WorldFuture 2008 Seeing the World Through New Eyes. You can register for the conference and the IAF Wiser Futures Workshop online.

 

Upcoming Events

A Bold New World 2008 AACP Annual Meeting and Seminars, IAF President Jonathan Peck, July 20th, Chicago, Illinois.

 

Wiser Futures Workshop, WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, IAF Futurists Clem Bezold, Marsha Rhea, Craig Bettles and Devin Fidler, July 26th, Washington, DC.

 

Health For All and a Health Care System Worth Creating, WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, IAF Futurists Clem Bezold and Bill Rowley, July 27th, Washington, DC.

 

Using Futures in Organizational Strategy, WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, IAF Futurists Jonathan Peck, Bill Rowley and Devin Fidler, July 27th, Washington, DC.

 

The Coming Decade in Air Travel, 2020 Visions from Two Blind Seers, WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, IAF Senior Associate Jay Herson with David Pearce Synder, July 27th, Washington, DC.

 

2021 Vision for Elementary and Middle Schools in a Global Society, WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, IAF Futurists Marsha Rhea and Craig Bettles with Elizabeth Carlson, July 28th, Washington, DC.

 

Key Trends and Uncertainties, Views from Corporate Foresight, WorldFuture 2008: Seeing the Future Through New Eyes, IAF Founder and Chairman of the Board Clem Bezold with Klaus Heinzelbecker and Gereon Uerz, July 28th, Washington, DC.