Jonathan Peck forecasts the future of drug discovery, development, and regulation in the February issue of Monitor, the magazine of the Association of Clinical Research Professionals. See the article here.
SELECTED PROJECTS
SELECTED SPEECHES AND WORKSHOPS
AstraZeneca Prescription Access Forum
In February 2010, Jonathan Peck provided a keynote conversation for leaders of healthcare clinics and organizations helping the poor and uninsured. The conversation was about change and uncertainty in healthcare. Peck inspired listeners to recognize that uncertainty creates opportunity and change can bring the healthcare they want. Participants interact daily with people in difficult health situations. In the face of uncertain legislative reforms, Peck invited these leaders to explore the uncertainty and find opportunity. Participants created a range of forecasts for: an expectable future, a future they most fear, and a future that would be surprisingly successful. These forecasts included great strides in treating disease with better personal care and healthy lifestyles. However, they also fear a stressed system worse than we have now and vulnerable to events such as a terrorist attacks on vaccine facilities.
PHARMACEUTICALS & MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY
IAF, with its for-profit subsidiary Alternative Futures Associates (AFA), is a leading provider of futures services to the drug discovery, development, and regulatory communities. IAF and AFA help those on all sides of the pharmaceutical industry use leading-edge futures tools to understand the future in order to better create the futures they prefer. AFA helps clients better understand the uncertainties of the future through environmental scans, trend analysis, forecasts, and scenario-based planning processes. We tailor appropriate training, learning, and planning activities to enable clients to create the future that is the best for all stakeholders.
PROJECTS
Biomonitoring Futures Project
With support from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, IAF developed the Biomonitoring Futures Project (BFP), which identifies trends in emerging biomonitoring technologies, explores them in the context of healthy living and prevention,and examines how they can reduce health care disparities particularly for cancer and diabetes. BFP also provides forecasts for future development and use of these technologies. Other output included the Biomonitoring Platform Assessment Report, the Health Information Systems Report, and the Final Report and Recommendations.
The 2029 Project: Achieving an Ethical Future for Biomedical R&D
This project showcases the dramatic advances that are likely to occur across the spectrum of biomedical research and development activities. It forecasts that a wide array of achievements in science will be enabled by an ethical evolution. After scanning the scientific literature, interviewing dozens of scientists and holding meetings focused on 2029, IAF anticipates a culture change. An emerging ethical concern for global health will create the context for medical science to realize its full potential, which will culminate in a Health Advocate Avatar. Click here for the executive summary or here for the full report (large file).
Co-evolution: Innovation and Regulation of Medical Products
IAF facilitated a meeting of leaders from regulation and industry to explore the future environment for the innovation and regulation of medical products. Participants used a series of thirteen forecasts for the next decade to stimulate thinking. Click here to see the report.
Optimal Futures for Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS)
In September 2009, in conjunction with the Society for Women's Health Research, IAF facilitated a workshop of regulators, industry, academics, and consumer advocates to explore the optimal futures for the FDA's new Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). View the PDF report here.
Drug Diagnostic Strategy for Pfizer
Adapted from the concept of wargaming, simulations can explore new stakeholder engagement and collaboration opportunities; test strategies before deployment to know the risks and uncertainties in advance; and optimize team decision-making. In this simulation, IAF Senior Associate Dr. Ben Sheppard evaluated the optimal combination and partnerships of drug diagnostic companies with Pfizer. Four diagnostic companies were invited to develop mock deals with a Pfizer team covering a 10 year period to assess the consequences of the decisions made. The simulation accelerated the decision making process and identified how the future healthcare reform led by then-to-be-elected Barack Obama could impact the pharmaceutical industry.
Foresight Seminars on Health Innovation, and Foresight Chronicles
Beginning in 1978, IAF has organized more than 117 Foresight Seminars to provide Congress, executive agencies and the private sector a forum for looking to the future of health and innovation. A list of selected seminars is available here. IAF's Foresight Chronicles paper chronicles the forecasts and insights developed through these Foresight Seminars from 1978 through 1998.
PUBLICATIONS
The Future of Bringing Drugs from Bench to Bedside
Drug Regulation 2056
In this article in the Food and Drug Law Journal, Clem Bezold and Jonathan Peck envision the future of drug regulation in the year 2056. View the article here.
Clinical Development 2005 Report
This report identifies strategies that could significantly cut the cost of developing new therapies, and could cut development times by half. Click here for the PDF report.